2004 Season NBA Basketball Past Picks
June 23, 2005
This pick was released to clients on September 24, 2012 at 5:08PM ET.
Detroit at San Antonio
Thursday 06/23 09:05 PM Eastern
1 unit on San Antonio -4.5 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: win
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 174 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: win
UNDER bettors are five-times bitten (5-1 O/U) but expect tonight that both teams will be at their defensive best as the UNDER is 12-3-1 in Detroit's last fifteen road games, 7-4-1 UNDER in Detroit's last twelve games when underdogs, and the Spurs have gone UNDER in fourteen of their last twenty home games. Detroit averaging 88.8 points/game in the series and the Spurs 85.5 which sets up another angle for the UNDER crowd. The Pistons are 23-4 UNDER their last 27 scoring less than 90 and the Spurs 37-6 UNDER it's L43 scoring below the 90 point range. This is game 7 - winner take all. I expect that, unlike the last few games, these teams' true colors will shine tonight and things will return to more "normal."
As such, I think in game 7 the better team shows up. San Antonio will defend their incredible home record. The numbers again... No team has ever won the last two on the road to take a 7 game series. Only 2 teams have ever come back from 0-2 to win a 7 game series. Home teams have won 12 of 17 game 7's. San Antonio is a perfect 11-0 straight-up at home off a upset loss as a favorite this season and they have lost only 6 games at home this season. Detroit is 1-10 in last 11 trips to San Antonio. Can Detroit win back-to-back in Texas under these circumstances? The home crowd will be a HUGE advantage tonight. San Antonio can't possibly come with such an error-proned uninspired effort again tonight knowing what's at stake. Just too much history going against Detroit. They have played back-to-back near perfect games (NBA record-low 4 turnovers in game 5 and only 5 in game 6) and I don't expect they can do it a third time in a row on the road. Lots pointing to a San Antonio outright win. What about the spread? Consider that the outright winner in this series has also covered the spread in all six of the games and 12 of the last 13 meetings between these clubs.
Because I've been less than great lately on Finals picks, I'm going to keep it small at one-star on San Antonio and one-star on the UNDER.