2004 Season NBA Basketball Past Picks
June 14, 2005
Detroit at San Antonio
Tuesday 06/14 09:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Detroit -4 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: win
2 units on Game Total UNDER 171 -110 (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: loss
After getting Game #1 right with the UNDER, I was wrong - dead wrong about game #2. Well, time to get back on the right side. And tonight I think the right side is the contrarian side. The public, after seeing what San Antonio did to Detroit in games 1 and 2, has written off the Pistons. They are on the Spurs and also all over the OVER tonight. While it's very tough to come back from 0-2 to win a series, we aren't betting that tonight. We are concerned with game 3. Since 1960, 0-2 teams are 12-4 straight-up in game 3. The Spurs dominated game-two the entire way, shooting 46.8% from the field, 45.8% from outside and 82.4% from the freebie line. It was a near-perfect game for them which will be hard to repeat. The Pistons are 7-2 (6-2-1 ATS) at home in the playoffs and can only improve it's series shooting which stands at at terrible 38.9% from the field, a horrid .08% from outside the arc and a dismal 66.6% from the free throw line. Detroit is 26-4 (19-10-1 ATS) the last thirty at The Palace of Auburn Hills and 13-5 ATS last eighteen hosting a Western Conference Team. The Spurs, let us not forget, aren't quite as super away from home. San Antonio is 0-5 in their last five trips into an Eastern Conference building and 1-6 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. How do the Spurs do after back-to-back great home games? They are just 2-10 ATS on the road off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Underdogs off a game in which they lead by 15 or more points at the half last game facing an opponent off a game in which they scored 80 points or less are just 9-43 (17%) straight-up since 1996. I expect a low-scoring affair in which Detroit plays aggressive with their backs against the walls, holds San Antonio down and comes away with a victory. Two stars on Detroit -4 and two stars on the UNDER.