2004 Season NBA Basketball Past Picks
June 12, 2005
Detroit at San Antonio
Sunday 06/12 09:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Detroit +6 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73) RESULT: loss
2 units on Game Total UNDER 170.5 -110 (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: loss
Detroit fell apart in game one as they were outscored 49-32 in the second half. The UNDER came in easily and San Antonio cruised to an easy 84-69 victory. As a result, the TOTAL moved from 176 in that game to 170.5 here. Wow! The spread, however, stayed virtually the same at -6.
Does Detroit have a shot here? I think so. They will make some big-time adjustments and I think they have a shot at actually winning this game. The Pistons are 11-1 straight-up after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse this season. They are also 13-0 straight-up revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season and 13-4 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points this season. And, get this: the road team has lost game one in the NBA Finals 24 times. In the following game, they have actually won the game outright 12 times (50%)! So, Detroit definitely has a shot here at pulling off the upset which would pay 2-1. I'll take the more conservative route though and take the Pistons plus the points for three stars.
In the 39 NBA Finals games in which the home team won game one, the total number of points scored in game two has averaged 6 points per game LESS than game one. Also, games involving two good defensive teams (41.5-43.5%) and two good rebounding teams (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) have gone UNDER the total to the tune of 56-24 (70%) since 1996. Also, games with a total of 179.5 or less featuring a home team that has outscored opponents by 3+ points/game off a blowout win by 15 points or more have gone UNDER 73% of the time (38-14) over the last 5 seasons. Detroit is 7-1 UNDER on the road vs. teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game since the All-Star break this season. But will these teams put together back-to-back low-scoring games? Isn't this game "due" to go OVER? The Pistons are 14-5 UNDER off a game in which 165 points or less were scored this season. San Antonio is 17-3 UNDER at home as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 8-1 UNDER at home when playing with 2 days rest this season. They are also 6-1 UNDER in The Finals over the last 3 seasons. Despite this TOTAL dropping so much, everything again points to an UNDER here. Two stars on the UNDER.