2004 Season NBA Basketball Past Picks
May 15, 2005
Detroit at Indiana
Sunday 05/15 03:30 PM Eastern
2 units on Indiana +5.5 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: loss
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 171.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: win
No one, including me, has given the Pacers enough credit this postseason. They won a game 7 on the road in Boston and they have now taken a 2-1 lead over the defending champions. Yet, they sit as a 5.5 point underdog on the home court this afternoon. Smells like great value to me, despite Rasheed Wallace's guaranteee. Indiana's defense has stepped up big time as they are holding opponents to under 87 points in the playoffs and to 83 over their last five playoff games. Detroit's defense has also been great (holding opponents to 84.4 over their last five) but their offense has stalled. Indiana is showing more heart and that's why they are winning. Can Detroit bounce back from two dismal performances? Consider that they are 1-10 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. Also, this season Indiana is 26-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Games witha total of 179.5 or less featuring a good team off a upset loss as a favorite faving a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) have gone UNDER 75% of the time (38-13) since 1996. Against very good teams, Indiana re-committs to defense. The Pacers are 17-6 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Two stars on Indiana and one on the UNDER here.