Denver at New Orleans

The Denver Nuggets won the first two played in Denver going away, to go up 2-0 in the series. The Nuggets are a different team on the road however, as their now 35-8 mark at home, turns to 21-20 on the road. New Orleans defense translates much better at home as they have held teams ranked in the top 10 offensively in points scored, to 10 points below their average. While Denver is 15-1 at home in their last 16, they are also 5-8 on the road over the same period. The Nuggets history in the playoffs has also seen them go 3-13 ATS as an underdog. The Hornets are 17-8 ATS as a favorite of 4.5 or less, and are on a playoff run that has seen them go 8-1 ATS in their last nine as a favorite of 4.5 or less. I'll go with the Hornets in this one. I also like this one to go under the total. I mentioned the Hornets allowing top 10 offenses to 10 points below their average. Those teams have resulted in 192 points per game in total points. The Nuggets averaged 104.3 ppg during the season, but those numbers sunk considerably on the road. When against teams in the top 10 in the NBA in points allowed, they managed just 93 ppg, more than 11 points a game below their average. The total points scored vs. these top defensive opponents were just 188. The games in Denver scored high, but the Hornets at home and the Nuggets on the road will bring a much different game, and I will play this one to finish UNDER the total.