Denver at Milwaukee

Denver has lost four of their last five and seven of of ten. They need to turn things around to cling to the 8th spot in the playoff race. This is a winnable game for them and I expect them to pull it off, motivated by a very embarrassing 19 point loss to Houston last game. This team is better than their recent record indicates as evidenced by double-digit leads in their past three losses. Denver has covered the number in 19 of the last 27 vs. the Bucks and I don't think Milwaukee has the offense to hang here. I am expecting Mello (probable) to be back in the lineup after having a day off to rest his bruised shoulder. The Nuggets have taken care of business vs. bad teams lately, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. teams below .400. They are also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 following a double-digit loss. I like the Nuggets here.