Denver at Los Angeles

The Nuggets and the Lakers have exchanged blows in this series so far, resulting in a 2-2 deadlock through four games. The fact is, these teams are very close and any of these games can go either way. It's hard to make an ATS call on these games as a result. Heck, in the first three games, the "wrong" team probably won (the one that was leading nearly all game). So I'm staying away from an ATS pick here. But is there value elsewhere? I think there is a pretty sure bet. The series returns to LA tonight where the Lakers have been an amazing 59-8 straight-up in their last 67 home games. That includes 17-3 in the playoffs. The problem for the Lakers is they are just 24-26 ATS at home this season and 7-9 ATS in the playoffs. So this game could go either way against the spread. But when you look at the moneyline price of 2.6 to 1 odds, the oddsmakers are saying the Lakers have a 72% chance of winning this game. If we believe they will win this game three out of four times or more, then the moneyline provides value. I think the Lakers have a 85%+ chance of winning this game outright. Again, the Lakers have won 59 of their last 67 home games. That's 87%. But some of those games were against weak teams I know. So let's just look at playoff-caliber teams. In the playoffs the Lakers have won 17 of their last 20 home games. This despite going just 10-10 ATS in those games. The Lakers have had their letdown moments this postseaon but they generally win the games they are supposed to win. This is a very important game in which LA can't afford to lose. A Denver win and the Lakers are in big trouble. The Lakers know that and should respond enough to get the victory. They have done it all playoffs! They have had some stinker games for sure, but never back-to-back. While they have lost back-to-back games against the spread three times already this postseason, they have not lost back-to-back games straight-up. After their five playoff losses this season, they have rebounded to win the next game every single time. The Nuggets have not been a good road team all season, finishing the regular season at just 21-20 and going 3-3 thus far in the playoffs. They have only covered 17 of their last 54 as a road dog of 5-10.5 points, so expecting a win here by the Nuggetst is a real stretch, especially when you consider the Lakers have won seven of the last eight here at home vs. the Nuggets. Denver struggles most on the road vs. good three-point shooting teams like the Lakers. Denver is just 8-17 straight-up this season on the road vs. teams that make 36%+ from beyond the arc (LA is one of the league's elite, hitting 37% at home). Denver is just 6-14 on the road this season vs. teams that average 100+ ppg. Meanwhile the Lakers have won 25 of their last 31 games vs. teams that allow 100+ ppg. The Lakers are also 25-5 straight-up this season in games with a total between 200-210. They are also 15-5 revenging a loss in which they allowed 110+ points. It all adds up to a very high chance (much higher than 72%) that the Lakers win this game outright and that's where I'm going.