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2008 Season NBA Basketball Past Picks

May 21, 2009

21

Denver at Los Angeles

Thursday 05/21 09:05 PM Eastern

4 units on Game Total UNDER 211 -110 (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: WIN

The Lakers and the Nuggets locked up in an exciting game one with Denver falling short thanks to 12 missed free throws and a terrible in-bounds pass at the end of the game. The Nuggets have been an offensive force over the last six weeks of the season but credit must be given to the underrated defense of the Lakers. They held Denver to their 2nd lowest playoff total in 11 games. The last time the Nuggs were held to this level of points was, guess what...against the Lakers! If you go back even further, and look at the other three matchups between these two teams, the Nuggets managed 90, 90 and 97 points. The Lakers learned a valuable lesson last year against the Celtics. If they think they can just outscore teams, and not commit to the defensive end, they will end up falling short, just like a year ago. They had lapses in the early rounds but they know they can't take the Nuggets lightly. This mindset has translated into a Lakers defensive average of just 92.3 ppg in their last 11 playoff games, and a 9-2 mark to the UNDER. The Nuggets high-octane offense has never translated into the playoffs. This offensive power, so evident during the regular season, has not translated in the playoffs when the defensive intensity kicks up. They have played to a 24-7 UNDER mark in the 31 playoff games over the last five seasons. That includes 10-1 to the UNDER as a dog from +5 to +10.5. The Lakers are an amazing 17-4-1 to the UNDER in their last 22 off an ATS loss, as well as 25-9 to the UNDER in their last 34 as a favorite. They are 9-4 UNDER in the playoffs. These teams have also now played under in seven of their last eight meetings. The oddsmakers got wiser and dropped this total down four points vs. game one. But that game went under by 8 points and that was after a bunch of garbage points at the end. The UNDER gets the call in this one.

NBA

2008-09 Recent Results

Wins Losses Units
38 31 +3.78

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