Denver at Detroit

Detroit may be home but they've run out of gas before the All-Star break, on a 2-5 SU/ATS run. The defense has been poor, surrendering 100 points or more in seven straight, while the free throw shooting is dead last in the NBA at a miserable .645%. Detroit got a picture of how the top teams operate in a 103-89 loss to Toronto on Monday, when the Raptors capitalized on all of the Pistons' mistakes. Detroit lost its best perimeter defender in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to a groin strain last Wednesday and allowed the Pacers and the Raptors to shoot a combined 54.8 percent from the field in the last two games. Denver has been playing well heading into the break, on 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS run, as well as a sizzling 11-2 spread run. Two games ago they beat the Knicks as a dog and come off a last-second lost at Brooklyn by one point. The Nuggets are 15-5-1 ATS following a straight-up loss and 33-16-2 ATS against the Central division. Play the points and take Denver.