2004 Season NBA Basketball Past Picks
May 18, 2005
Dallas at Phoenix
Wednesday 05/18 09:05 PM Eastern
2 units on Dallas +6.5 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82) RESULT: win
1 unit on Game Total OVER 222.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91) RESULT: loss
The Mavericks strategy of surrounding Amare Stoudemire with at least two defenders each time he touched the ball paid dividends as Stoudemire (averaging 35.7 points in the series) was held to just 15 last game. As a result, the Mavs took game-four 119-109 turning the series into a best-of-three. The combination of the Suns weak defense and a repeat strategy by Dallas in the desert Wednesday night would allow the Mavericks to take the drivers seat or at the least be in a great spot too grab the loot. Phoenix's dismal defense is allowing 107.8 PPG in this series, 105.3 PPG during the playoffs raises the red flag. Phoenix is 5-11-1 against-the-spread on home hardwood last seventeen as favorites when allowing opponents 100+ points and a putrid 3-13 ATS hosting a Southwest team while Mavericks are 8-2 against-the-number the last ten as road dogs hitting the century mark in scoring and 10-1 ATS on the road after allowing 105 points or more in their previous game. Dallas is 8-2 ATS on the road versus good offensive teams scoring 99+ points/game and 13-4 ATSversus good shooting teams making >46% of their shots this season. Since the all-star break, the Mavs are 9-1 OVER versus good shooting teams (making >46% of their shots) and 10-2 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game. Two stars on the Mavericks and one on the OVER.