Dallas at Golden State

Whoa Nelly! What's going on here. The #8 seed is kicking the snot out of the #1 seed. The Warriors are taking care of business with the kind of swagger usually reserved for top seeded teams. Dallas is the better team but Golden State is just a team against which the Mavs have problems. They don't like the style or the matchups and have lost 4 of 5 games to this team this year. Dallas has to be in panic-mode to some extent. Most teams that had won 67 games wouldn't be panicking right now. They would have confidence. But for Dallas it's different. They can't beat this team! And, they remember last year's Finals debacle in which they were supposed to win but lost after a 2-0 series lead. They know, in the back of their minds, that they are very capable of losing this series. It's got to be a scary thought for them. Sure, they will come out tonight with everything they have. But if things don't go right for them (as they haven't every time they face the Warriors so far), they might crumble. Meanwhile, Golden State will also come out with fire. They know that their best chance of pulling off the most stunning series upset in NBA PLayoffs history is to win this game at home. So both teams will be playing with motivation, but Golden State is looser and has more confidence and the backing of their home crowd. The Warriors are benefitting from the veteren leadership of Don Nelson. With Nelly at the helm, they are 9-1 ATS this season at home vs. top-level teams (70%+ SU record). He is also 15-3 ATS as an underdog off a 15+ point win in his coaching career. And get this: Dallas is just 1-8 ATS this season on the road vs. terrible defensive teams (those allowing 103+ ppg). It just goes to show, Dallas doesn't really know how to play a team like Golden State. We'll take the home team and the points here as until Dallas shows they can beat this team convincingly, the value is on the Warriors.