Cleveland at Golden State

These are two great offensive teams, but it's easy to overlook how great defensively they've been. Golden State has more weapons on offense than Cleveland, and the Warriors were also #1 in the NBA in field goal shooting defense during the regular season, allowing 42% shooting. Golden State is on a 10-2 run UNDER the total, as well as 10-4 UNDER against the Eastern Conference. The Warriors are also 20-8-2 ATS at home against a team with a winning road record and 6-2 ATS when playing on three or more days rest. It's a long road trip for Cleveland, a team that beat Boston, banged up Chicago and overrated Atlanta in the very weak Eastern playoffs. None of those teams come close to the offensive efficiency of the Warriors, a historically great team that ranked #1 in field goal shooting and #1 in three-point shooting. Throw in their #1 defensive ranking and that's a rare NBA trifecta reserved for elite teams. Golden State is bigger than Atlanta and Boston up front, and the Warriors' one-two punch of Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry will be the toughest matchup yet for the Cavs. The Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS following a spread win and 1-6 ATS after a win of more than 10 points. You need a big, physical defensive player to throw at LeBron and the Warriors have one in Draymond Green. The Cavaliers are 3-9 ATS against the Warriors, including 1-5 ATS at Golden State. In addition, it will be a tough game one for both offenses after the unusually long layoff. The defenses will be ready to go, but the offenses will be out of synch for a bit. Cleveland has become a strong defensive team down the stretch with the addition of Mosgov up front and Shumpert from the Knicks. The UNDER is 4-0 in the Cavaliers' last four road games while the Warriors are on a 7-0-1 run UNDER the total at home. Play Golden State and both the first-half and game total UNDER.