2004 Season NBA Basketball Past Picks

April 05, 2005

This pick was released to clients on September 24, 2012 at 1:53PM ET.


Chicago at Miami

Tuesday 04/05 07:35 PM Eastern

1 unit on Chicago +8.5 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91)  RESULT: loss

3 units on Game Total OVER 195 -110 (risk 3 to return 5.73)  RESULT: loss

This is simply too many points for the Bulls to be getting considering the way they have been playing as of late. Chicago has won nine straight games as they fight for home court advantage in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. They are 7-1-1 ATS over that stretch. The reason behind the Bulls recent success has been their defensive play. They have held each of their last 10 opponents under 100 points. That's important as they prepare to face a Heat squad that has scored more than 100 in four of their last five. Miami has been inconsistent as of late, a direct result of having all but wrapped up the Eastern Conference crown. They are just 3-3 SU and ATS over their last six games. If Miami can't get their offense going early in this one, they will be in trouble. They have allowed nearly 103 ppg over their last five contests. The Bulls are certainly capable of making a game of it against the Heat on Tuesday night. Teams off a scoring output of 100+ points for 3 straight games (Chicago) against opponent off a game scoring 110+ points have gone over 70-38 (65%) over the last 5 seasons. Miami is 28-13 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 14-4 OVER at home when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. One star on Chicago and three on the OVER.

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