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2008 Season NBA Basketball Past Picks

May 10, 2009

10

Boston at Orlando

Sunday 05/10 08:05 PM Eastern

4 units on Orlando PICK (-110) (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: loss

5 units on 1st ½ Total UNDER 95 -110 (risk 5 to return 5)  RESULT: win

4 units on Orlando -220 (moneyline) (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: loss

We were on the Magic in game three with a very easy 5-unit winner. What's changed for this game? Not much. We have the same line and I still like the Magic. Yes, this is more of a must-win for Boston but the fact remains that right now, without KG in the Boston lineup, the Magic are the better team. Boston can put up a fight but in the end, they don't have the team necessary to beat Orlando - not here at home. Boston has fought valiantly in the playoffs but they seem to be wearing down. They are just 5-5 in the playoffs now, allowing 106.4 points per game. Orlando knows the importance of winning this game. They can either go up 3-1 and in all likelihood clinch the series, or they can head back to Boston tied 2-2. Stan Van Gundy reminded his team after game three that Philadelphia was in this position (up 2-1 after three games) last series and lost the series. I believe Orlando won't let down here. Orlando manhandled Boston last game even without their starting point guard who will be back for this one. The Magic are 25-11 ATS vs. teams scoring 100+ ppg. They are 25-15 ATS this season vs. winning opponents. Magic get the call again here. I also like this game to repeat what we saw last game - low scoring in the first half. This first-half line is actually a half-point higher. Last game snuck under barely but that's only because of a flurry of scoring late in the second quarter. After 1.5 quarters the game looked like it would end the half in the 70s. So we have a unique situation here where this line should be lower, but it's actually higher. These two teams both play a ton of first-half UNDERs and this game should be no different. Boston is 27-18 UNDER in the first half on the road this season while Orlando is 28-16 UNDER at home. In the first-half this season, Boston is 27-12 UNDER as an underdog and 16-7 UNDER revenging a loss. Orlando is 20-10 UNDER after a win and 40-24 UNDER after a very high scoring game (205+ points scored). I like the Magic and the first-half UNDER.

NBA

2008-09 Recent Results

Wins Losses Units
38 31 +3.78

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