Boston at Chicago

Took a hard look at the total in this game. The Bulls are averaging 97.1 points per game. We took a look at how they have performed at home against teams that allow under 100 ppg, and their production is greatly reduced to 92.1 ppg or about five less a game. Boston's defense gives up a bit over 90 a game. We looked at Boston's profile of road games and they allow just 89.2 ppg against these teams. Those are teams that average 96 points per game, so they show a scoring deficit of about 7 ppg as well. Boston scores 100.5 ppg is scoring just 98 ppg in these games - again a bit of a deficit. This leaves us with a strong inclination that this total is set about 6-7 points too high so we will ride the UNDER here.