Atlanta at Miami

The Miami Heat is up against a closeout game, and has not shot the ball well in this series vs. Atlanta. They have trouble matching up with the Hawks, and the proof is in the numbers. The Heat's lowest two outputs offensively during the regular season were 69 points vs. Portland and 73 vs. Atlanta. The playoffs have put two more games in that equation - a 64 point output and 71 point output vs. the Hawks in this series. You can also add in a 79-point output to close the season, but Wade sat out that game. Speaking of Wade, he is the key to all of what Miami does, and great players aren't going to be shutdown, but Atlanta has found a way to limit what he does and make it difficult. Wade has played eight games vs. the Hawks this season and scored above his average in just two of them. The other six games he shot 54-128 or just 42.1%, and just 8-30 from behind the arc, for 26.7%. They have been aware of him all series, and will make it difficult for him to score a ton of points here. That puts pressure on the rest of the Heat offense to step up, and they haven't been able to do it. I like Atlanta here with the points, but I also like this one to go UNDER the total. Miami has had four of their worst offensive outputs of the season vs. the Hawks, and with this being a potential closeout game I look for the defense to be the dominant factor, and will also play this one to finish UNDER the total.