Atlanta at Miami

This is a matchup of two much-improved teams. The Heat certainly had nowhere to go but up, and the Hawks look like a team that will get themselves above the .500 mark this season. The Hawks won just 12 games on the road last season, but have made strides while continuing to be undervalued on the road. Although they are an improved road team, their record stands at just 5-8. The good news is that they are getting closer as they are 8-5 ATS on the road, so they are playing above the line. The Heat is playing much better, but partially due to a very soft early home slate. They have put together a 7-3 mark, but the wins have come to teams that have a combined record of just 46-105, or a woeful 30.5% winning percentage. The Heat has lost to all teams at home that have a mark equal to or better than the Hawks. The Hawks are the choice here, and I like the OVER as well. The Heat is 6-0 to the OVER in their last six in the role of a favorite and 7-1 after a SU win. The Hawks are also 7-3 to the OVER against a team with a winning record.