Atlanta at Miami

This has been a strange series through the first three games. Atlanta made a game one statement by blowing out the Heat by 26 points, only to come back on their home court and lose by 15. Then coming to Miami for game three, the Hawks got taken behind the wood shed in a 29-point loss. Inn game two, we saw Miami come out steaming and focused after getting beat down by 26 points. They won the next game outright and this is not such a rare occurance in the NBA playoffs. Certain teams off a big losses have had marked success coming back in the next game and winning. Miami basically threw a perfect game at them in game three as they were a perfect 19-19 from the free throw line, and hit over 50% from behind the arc. I look for Atlanta to regroup here and do what teams off of these big losses have historically done in the playoffs over the years, and that is to come back with a high level of intensity to erase the humiliating loss. Miami is just 34-48 ATS at home and and 12-24 ATS off a home win the past two seasons.  They are also 14-25 ATS at home vs. winning teams dating back to last season. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 12-4 ATS revenging a double-digit road loss this season. I like a motivated Hawks team to play hard and get the cover here.