2008 Season NBA Basketball Past Picks

May 05, 2009


Atlanta at Cleveland

Tuesday 05/05 08:05 PM Eastern

4 units on Cleveland PICK (-110) (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: win

3 units on Game Total UNDER 179 -110 (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: win

The Cleveland Cavaliers made quick work of the Detroit Pistons, winning four straight to sweep the series. The way they went about it was just like they have in the regular season. The Cavs became just the second team to sweep four-straight games all by double-digits. The other team was the '04 Pacers, and they were a double-digit favorite to open their second-round series and won and covered. The Cavs have now won 44 games by double-digits on the season, and they are hard to stay with when they focus. The Hawks had a struggle with the Heat in their opening round series. They were especially inept on the road where they managed just 77 points per game in the three played at Miami. Now they must take on the best defense in the NBA in terms of fewest points allowed. The Cavs have lost just 16 games the entire season, while the Hawks have lost 13 on the road by double-digits. Cleveland may concern some, because of the long layoff especially after watching the Lakers struggle to shake off the rust last night. But teams that are off a long layoff of five games or more are actually 26-20 ATS in the opener of the next series, so not a negative factor at all. The Hawks are now 7-19 ATS the past two seasons on the road vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 3+ ppg. Cleveland is 18-8 ATS this season as a home favorite in the 7-12 point range. They are also a perfect 7-0 ATS this season at home coming off a double-digit road win. I like the Cavs to win in a blowout here. I also like the UNDER. The Cavs have been at their defensive best off an ATS win, as they are 41-20 ATS to the UNDER in this situation, and also 13-3 to the UNDER in their last 16 as a home favorite. When playing at home after a game in which they allowed 85 or fewer points, the Cavs are 16-5 UNDER dating back to last season. They are also 11-3 UNDER this season coming off a 20+ point blowut win. The Hawks have played five-straight UNDERS when posted as an underdog. Take the Cavs and the UNDER.


2008-09 Recent Results

Wins Losses Units
38 31 +3.78

with detailed analysis