Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns Point Spread Picks

Combine the Thunder (-475) and the Nuggets (-500) into a 2-team parlay at -227 odds.

Phoenix has done well to reach this point in its season. But there is no evidence that the Suns can stay within single digits of the defending champion Thunder. Oklahoma City beat Phoenix by 35 points in Game 1 of this playoff series. The Thunder led by 26 points in the fourth quarter of Game 2 before winning by 13. The Suns are averaging 95.5 points in the series heading into Game 3. The series has gotten chippy with the Suns openly showing their frustration, especially Devin Booker. Phoenix is a very good defensive team. The Suns gave up the sixth fewest points during the regular season and ranked second in 3-point defense. This is an afternoon game, which often means lower scoring. However, Phoenix was 25th in scoring and 28th in field goal percentage. The Suns have not solved an Oklahoma City defense that allowed the second-fewest points during the regular season and ranked first in defensive field-goal percentage. The Thunder won't have their second leading scorer, Jalen Williams. He is out with a hamstring injury suffered during the last game. But the Thunder have plenty of depth. They still far outclass Phoenix. Take the Thunder and the UNDER.

Oklahoma City is far superior to Phoenix in talent and depth. The Thunder's dominance was on full display this past Sunday in Game 1. Oklahoma City won, 119-84. The Thunder led by as many as 39 points. They played all 14 of their active players. Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made only 5 of 18 field goals and sat out the fourth quarter. Oklahoma City shot just 30.4% from 3-point range. Yet the Thunder still won by 35 points. This does not bode well for the Suns, who needed to win two games in the play-in just to reach this point. The Thunder are determined to become repeat champions for the first time since 2018. They also blew out the Suns twice during the regular season, 138-89, Dec. 10 in Oklahoma City in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, and 136-109, on Feb. 11. Making matters even worse for the Suns are injuries. Jordan Goodwin didn’t play in the second half after aggravating his left calf in the first half. Mark Williams missed a second straight game with left foot soreness, and Grayson Allen also sat out a second straight game due to a left hamstring strain. Take the Thunder. 

Phoenix is working on one day of rest, on a 2-7 spread run. Their reward for advancing is heading to the No. 1 seed and the defending champs. The Suns have a losing road mark, ranking 28th in field goal shooting on offense (45.5%), while the defense is 15th in shooting allowed (47%). Oklahoma City has had six days off. OKC is such a tough matchup for everyone, with speed and spacing, ranked fifth in the NBA in scoring and shooting, plus third from the free-throw line (81.7%). The Thunder lead the league in points off turnovers, with a defense that is second in points given up and No. 1 in shooting allowed. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.1 ppg, 6.6 apg) took the final two games off to rest, with OKC 19-1 in the 20 games prior to that. OKC won at Phoenix in February in a blowout (136-109) without Gilgeous-Alexander, and won an even bigger blowout at home (138-89) with him as a 15.5-point favorite versus the Suns. Play Oklahoma City.

Both teams are locked into their respective spots in the playoffs, but Oklahoma City likely will want to see a better result than its 20-point loss at Denver on Friday. The Thunder rested four starters in their third road game in four days, but now they're back home for the regular-season finale. Phoenix also rested some players, but they fared even worse than the Thunder losing 101-73 to the Lakers while shooting just 34 percent and missing 33 of 40 from the 3-point line. Plus, Grayson Allen suffered a hamstring injury and he is out for this game. The Suns are 2-4 straight up and 0-6 ATS their past six games. They are 2-8 ATS the past 10 meetings with Oklahoma City. Take the Thunder.