Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Point Spread Picks

San Antonio is 1-8 straight up in its past nine games at Minnesota. The Timberwolves need to duplicate their Game 4 performance at the Target Center when Anthony Edwards poured in 36 points to lead six double-figure scorers. The Spurs were held to 6-for-26 shooting from the 3-point line. Also, the Wolves need to get off to a better start after trailing by 15 points before a lot of the fans were in their seats in Game 5, and Jaden McDaniels needs to stay out of foul trouble. Victor Wembanyama is always close to losing his cool, and the Timberwolves can take advantage if they play their cards right. Minnesota has the edge in playoff experience, which could force a Game 7. Take the Timberwolves on the moneyline.

With the series tied 2-2, we can expect both defenses to be zoned in tonight. These teams are ranked No. 2 and 3 in the postseason at defending the 3-pointer. Minnesota caught a break (and an elbow) when Victor Wembanyama was ejected in the second quarter of Game 4 on Sunday. But they have to head out on the road for Game 5, 2-3 in the playoffs away from home, after going 23-18 during the regular season. San Antonio is fourth in the playoffs in points given up (102.3 per game) and No. 1 in field goal shooting allowed (41.1%). The Spurs are 35-10 at home this season, counting the postseason, and back home to win the game with a fierce defensive first half. Combine the Spurs to win straight-up on the moneyline and the first-half UNDER 106 into a 2-team parlay at +143 odds. 

Minnesota's defense kept it reasonably close, but the Timberwolves couldn't overcome Victor Wembanyama's inside presence and they missed their first 12 shots of the game while losing Game 3. The Timberwolves didn't get a basket until Rudy Gobert's putback after 6:52 had elapsed. Minnesota has gone UNDER eight of 12 Sunday games and it is 30-15 UNDER overall at home in 2025-26. San Antonio is 25-20-1 UNDER on the road. Minnesota has averaged just 101.7 points the past three meetings. The Spurs have allowed only 100.9 points their past eight games. Take the first half and the game to go UNDER.

The Timberwolves are averaging just 99.5 points through the first two games of their series against the Spurs. San Antonio is a top-eight defensive team featuring Defensive Player of the Year Victor Wembanyama, and the Timberwolves have started slow, scoring 45 first-half points in Game 1 and being held to only 35 points in the first half in Game 2. Wembanyama has 14 blocked shots in the two games. He led the NBA in blocked shots during the regular season. Minnesota's star scorer, Anthony Edwards, is playing reduced minutes while recovering from a hyperextended left knee. The first two games were in San Antonio. Now the scene shifts to Minnesota. The Timberwolves are one of the top defensive teams at home with a 110.4 defensive rating. That puts them among the elite home team defenses. Minnesota should ratchet up its defensive intensity after being humiliated 133-95 in Game 2. Take the first half UNDER and the full game UNDER.

Sparked by the unexpected return of Anthony Edwards, the Timberwolves surprised the home Spurs, 104-102, to win Game 1 in the opener of the Western Conference semifinals on Monday. Edwards was expected to miss at least the first two games of the series after suffering a bone bruise and hyperextending his left knee on April 25 during Game 4 of Minnesota’s opening-round series against Denver. The combination of the Timberwolves suffering a letdown and the Spurs raising their level of play makes San Antonio a strong home favorite in Game 2. NBA Defensive Player of the Year Victor Wembanyama set an NBA postseason record with 12 blocks in Monday's opener. However, Wembanyama shot just 5 for 17 from the field. He shot 51.2 percent from the floor during the regular season. “We have to be better,” Wembanyama said. “It shows up on the stat sheet. We need to figure out before 48 hours what we can do better and I’ve got no doubt that we will. I trust us.” Even with Edwards back, Minnesota is still short-handed. Guard Donte DiVincenzo is out with a torn right Achilles tendon, and Ayo Dosunmu is questionable with right calf soreness that caused him to miss Game 1. Take the Spurs.