Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Point Spread Picks

Miami is the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA and plays at the fastest pace. That is going to be problematic for the Suns, who play at the ninth-slowest tempo in the league and won't have their leading scorer and star player, Devin Booker. He is out with an ankle injury. Booker averages 25.4 points a game. Dillon Brooks is the only other Phoenix player averaging more than 17 points a game. The Heat rolled past the Jazz, 147-116, last night. But the fatigue factor for Miami is very much lessened because of the blowout. Only Bam Adebayo logged more than 28 minutes in the win and 11 Heat players saw action. Phoenix is not in an ideal situation. This is the Suns' first home game in two weeks. They just returned from a six-game road swing that concluded with a 110-103 loss to the Hawks this past Friday. Atlanta ranks 25th defensively giving up an average of 118.7 points a game. Yet the Hawks held the Suns 15 points below their season defensive average. Booker played nearly 29 minutes in that game, too, scoring 31 points before getting injured. Take the Heat.

The Phoenix Suns have been playing very good basketball of late, and there is one thing to notice. The Suns are playing about as well as any team in the NBA on the defensive end of the court. The Suns, over their last six games, have not allowed any team to score more than 107 points and have averaged allowing opponents just over 101 ppg. This total has broken the 230 mark as this is being written. Miami is 12-6 to the UNDER in their last 18 games. Both teams prefer a slower pace, and neither is afraid to play defense. Make the play UNDER the total. 

Phoenix has won five straight, but it has been overpriced the past two games when it beat Portland and Philadelphia while failing to cover the number. The Suns come off a 118-116 victory over the 76ers as a 7-point favorite when Kevin Durant broke a tie with a layup with 24 seconds left. Miami looks to bounce back from a tough 111-110 loss to Sacramento while blowing a 15-point lead, when Domantas Sabonis scored off an offensive rebound with 0.7 seconds left. The Heat have won three of five and the Suns are 0-7 ATS as home favorites dating to last season. Miami is 13-3 ATS when on the road against Phoenix and the Suns are 2-9 ATS their past 11 games overall. Take the Heat.