Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Point Spread Picks

Milwaukee is on a 6-0 ATS run against Miami with five outright wins, including its 128-117 win as a 6.5-point underdog on Feb. 24. The Heat have won six in a row, but they have to be having some kind of letdown after Bam Adebayo's incredible and inexplicable 83-point outburst against Washington on Tuesday night. The Heat scored 150 points while missing 30 of 43 3-pointers. The Wizards shot 52 percent and went 15-for-36 from beyond the arc, while the Heat were more focused on getting Adebayo the ball than on playing any defense. Miami is still dealing with several injuries, with five players listed as day-to-day, and Adebayo may still be fatigued after his historic performance. Despite Milwaukee's failed efforts to develop a true defensive identity, this is an excellent setup for them. And despite the recent blowouts, Milwaukee has been outscored by only 5.4 PPG in conference play. Grab the value on the Bucks. 

Miami has gone UNDER 12 of 18 games, and its past six Saturday games have stayed UNDER. The Heat are #7 in the NBA, allowing 109.8 points per game, and Milwaukee is #3 in 3-point shooting defense, allowing just 34.6 percent from beyond the arc. Three of the past four meetings have gone UNDER. Miami has stayed UNDER three of four, including its 110-108 loss to Memphis on Thursday. The Heat have allowed only 100.5 points in their past four games and held three of their past six opponents to fewer than 100 points. Miami seems to start clamping down defensively as it gets close to playoff time. Take the UNDER.

Miami is in revenge mode after being embarrassed 125-96 by the Bucks in the last meeting on Jan. 23. The Heat come off a 120-111 overtime win over Toronto on Friday night and Milwaukee is just 3-8 ATS its past 11 games. Milwaukee is barely above .500 with a 14-13-1 ATS mark in home games this season. The Bucks are 0-6 ATS their past six games as favorites. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been day-to-day with a calf injury and Damian Lillard has the same status with a hamstring issue. The Heat had been in disarray for weeks while dealing with the Jimmy Butler saga, but it appears the All-Star break is just what they needed for a fresh start. Take the points with the Heat.