Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks

Miami has gone UNDER 12 of 18 games, and its past six Saturday games have stayed UNDER. The Heat are #7 in the NBA, allowing 109.8 points per game, and Milwaukee is #3 in 3-point shooting defense, allowing just 34.6 percent from beyond the arc. Three of the past four meetings have gone UNDER. Miami has stayed UNDER three of four, including its 110-108 loss to Memphis on Thursday. The Heat have allowed only 100.5 points in their past four games and held three of their past six opponents to fewer than 100 points. Miami seems to start clamping down defensively as it gets close to playoff time. Take the UNDER.

Miami is in revenge mode after being embarrassed 125-96 by the Bucks in the last meeting on Jan. 23. The Heat come off a 120-111 overtime win over Toronto on Friday night and Milwaukee is just 3-8 ATS its past 11 games. Milwaukee is barely above .500 with a 14-13-1 ATS mark in home games this season. The Bucks are 0-6 ATS their past six games as favorites. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been day-to-day with a calf injury and Damian Lillard has the same status with a hamstring issue. The Heat had been in disarray for weeks while dealing with the Jimmy Butler saga, but it appears the All-Star break is just what they needed for a fresh start. Take the points with the Heat.

The Miami Heat are pondering their future, and the trade winds are blowing for their star player Jimmy Butler, who wants out. A sad record and diminishing morale are a bad mix, especially when outmatched on the road. The Heat are in Milwaukee tonight to face the surging Bucks, who have won four in a row. The Bucks are finally playing as expected and have moved up to fourth in the NBA Eastern Conference standings. The Bucks have been taking care of their home court where they are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games. The Bucks are averaging 122.2 PPG and shooting 51.3% over their last five contests. I like Milwaukee on the moneyline.

The Milwaukee Bucks got off to a horrible start as they were 4-9 through 13 games. They appear to have things going now and they will head to Miami on a four-game winning streak to take on the Heat, who are 7-7 on the year. The Bucks' offense is sizzling as they have averaged 125.3 PPG in their last three. That could present a problem for this Miami squad who are shooting just 42.6% at home on the season. Milwaukee took two out of three in this series last season and scored 120-plus in the two wins. The Bucks have the offense clicking, and this will be a tall order for the Heat. Make the play on Milwaukee.

Miami is 12th in the NBA from 3-point land (37%) and third from the free-throw line (82.3%). They lost the first meeting with Milwaukee earlier this season, 131-124. Milwaukee is on a 46-26 run OVER the total at home, plus 26-12 OVER at home versus winning teams. The Bucks are second in the league in scoring (122.7 points per game), fourth in field goal shooting (49.5%), and eighth from long range (37.8%). Milwaukee is 28-18 OVER the total as chalk, including 18-9 OVER as a home favorite. The Bucks just topped Denver 112-95, and are 40-22 OVER the total after playing an UNDER. Take Miami/Milwaukee OVER the total.