Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs Point Spread Picks

Houston is 16-4 UNDER its past 20 games against the Western Conference and 6-0 UNDER its past six versus the Southwest Division. The Rockets are 35-27 UNDER, and San Antonio is 38-26 UNDER this season. The Rockets have allowed just 101.2 points per game over their past 10. The Spurs are 17-12 UNDER at home in 2025-26, and they have gone UNDER five of their past seven games. Eight of the past 10 meetings have stayed UNDER, and San Antonio has gone UNDER four of six against the Southwest Division. Houston is #4 in the NBA, allowing 109.4 points per game, #6 in allowing 45.8 percent shooting, and #7 in 3-point defense at 34.9 percent. Take the UNDER.

San Antonio seeks payback for a 111-106 loss to the Rockets last week, when it was outscored 29-14 in the fourth quarter. The Spurs shot just 39 percent and missed 36 of 50 3-pointers, yet they kept it close and even led by 16 at one point. The Spurs have gone UNDER 12 of 13 and four in a row. They would like to redeem themselves after losing to lowly New Orleans on Sunday, when perhaps the Spurs were looking ahead to this matchup. The Rockets are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games and 1-10 ATS in their past 11 games playing with one day of rest. San Antonio is 16-5 ATS against teams with .600 winning percentages. The Spurs have gone UNDER 10 of 11 road contests, and they are 5-1 UNDER following an ATS loss. Houston is on an 8-2 UNDER run, and the Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their past seven against Southwest Division opponents. Take the Spurs and the UNDER. 

San Antonio is seventh in the NBA in points allowed and fourth in field goal percentage allowed. The Spurs are on a 16-4 run UNDER the total after a 123-110 win over Utah. Houston is fourth in points given up and ninth in shooting allowed. The Rockets come off a 119-110 victory over New Orleans, part of an 11-2 run UNDER the total. Take San Antonio/Houston UNDER the total.  

The San Antonio Spurs got some bad news when they learned that Victor Wembanyama will be out for the rest of the season after being diagnosed with a blood clot in his right shoulder. His game impacts the Spurs significantly on both ends of the floor, but particularly on offense here he averaged 24.3 PPG. The Rockets play good solid defense and their games have averaged 222 PPG on the season, but just 216 PPG at home. San Antonio is averaging 224 PPG on the road, and I think this team is going to play a lot more deliberately without the big guy in the middle. Make the play UNDER the total.