Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trail Blazers

Golden State is 11-4 ATS in its past 15 games against Northwest Division opponents, and it has won eight straight against Portland, which has lost the two meetings this season by an average of 23 points. The Warriors have won six of eight and covered the spread in five of their past seven games. They will be in a foul mood after losing to San Antonio 114-111 on Wednesday when Harrison Barnes hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat them. Golden State has won five road games in a row (4-0-1 ATS), and Portland has lost six of nine (4-5 ATS). The Trail Blazers come off a 133-126 loss to lowly Utah, which had lost nine straight and 19 of 20 games. Portland has eight players out for the season and two more who are day-to-day. Portland is 2-10 ATS after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game. The Trail Blazers are #25 in the NBA in field goal percentage and #26 in 3-point shooting percentage. Lay the points with the Warriors.

Portland went UNDER its past two games while averaging only 101.5 points in losses against Oklahoma City and Detroit. The Trail Blazers have stayed UNDER four straight, playing on no rest, and they are 10-3 UNDER their past 13 versus the Pacific Division. Portland is 19-14-1 UNDER on the road this season. Golden State has gone UNDER three of four, including by 11.5 points against the Pistons on Saturday. The Warriors have allowed 108.0 points per game in their last four games. The Warriors allow 111.2 points, and Portland scores 110.4 per game in 2024-25. Take the UNDER.

They're breaking up that old gang of mine! Golden State lost Klay Thompson to Dallas and failed to add any star power to replace him in the offseason. Portland is off a lost season because of injuries, but they have a very good trio to build around. Center Deandre Ayton (16.7 points, 11.1 rebounds per game) is back along with forward Jerami Grant (21 ppg) and guard Anfernee Simons (22.6 points per game). Center Robert Williams III provides shot blocking and frontcourt muscle. He's healthy after playing in just six games a year ago. The Blazers have big bodies up front that match up well against the finesse Warriors, who are the shortest and lightest team in the NBA. Play Portland. 

Portland has begun the rebuilding process and enters this game just 1.5 games better than the bottom team in the West, the San Antonio Spurs. Golden State has locked up a play-in game at #10, but has a chance to move up to #8 as they are just 1.5 games behind the Kings. Golden St. seems to be playing with urgency as they are 8-1 in their last nine games, shooting 50% or better in five of them. Portland is 2-12 in their last 14 games and it appears they have stopped playing up to their capacity, which is limited to begin with. I don't think anyone wants to play the Warriors right now, who have found their offensive rhythm, and at the same time has held four of their last nine opponents to 100 or fewer points. Make the play on Golden St.

This is not the same Golden State team as the last several years, as the Warriors are just 14-13 with a 12-5-1 ATS record. These teams have met twice this season and both were close wins by the Warriors, but Portland covered the spread in both, including a 118-114 loss on Sunday when the Warriors were favored by six points and they had to shoot 53 percent to get the victory. Golden State has won four in a row after defeating lowly Washington 129-118 last night and now they play a back-to-back. The Warriors are 2-8-1 ATS their past 11 games as favorites and 0-4-1 ATS after scoring more than 125 points their previous game. Also, Golden State is 0-4-1 ATS against teams with below .400 winning percentages. The Trail Blazers have covered eight of 11 as underdogs and five of their past six road games. Take the Trail Blazers.