Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Point Spread Picks

The big news in this game is the likely return of 12-time All-Star Stephen Curry, who has been out for more than two months. Since Curry's injury, the Warriors have gone 9-18 with the NBA’s fifth-worst offense and eighth-worst defense. The betting line is shorter than what it should be because of Curry's return. The Rockets are 48-29. They are the best rebounding team in the NBA and rank fourth defensively. Houston has won five in a row. The Warriors have clinched the 10th and last spot in the Play-In Tournament. However, they are three games behind the Clippers for the ninth spot. Realistically, the Warriors do not have anything to play for until the playoffs begin. So the 38-year-old Curry is likely to be eased into action. He figures to be rusty and has yet to acclimate himself with newcomer big man Kristaps Porziņġis. Golden State still is missing two of its better players with Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody, who was in the midst of a career year, both out for the season. Take the Rockets.

Houston has gone UNDER three in a row while allowing only 102.7 points per game following Monday's 114-92 rout of Phoenix, which went UNDER by 17.5 points. Eight of the past 11 meetings with Golden State have stayed UNDER. The Warriors are unexpectedly #21 in the NBA, averaging 115.8 points, while the Rockets are #3 defensively, allowing 111.1 points. The teams are meeting for the first time since Golden State beat the Rockets in seven games in the 2024-25 playoffs. The Warriors won the deciding game 103-89, staying UNDER by 14 points. Kevin Durant, Fred VanVleet, and Al Horford are not expected to play. In addition, Draymond Green is day-to-day with a foot injury. Take the UNDER. 

Houston forced a Game 7 with a 115-107 win on Friday night and now Golden State's playoff experience will be needed to pull off a win on the road on Sunday. The Warriors missed 13 straight shots in a nearly seven-minute span in the fourth quarter and that was the main contributor to their downfall. However, Stephen Curry has shown he is capable of not only bouncing back from 9-for-23 shooting, but coming up big in clutch moments. He averages 32.6 points in Game 7s. The Warriors kept Game 6 relatively close even while missing 34 of 49 3-point tries. They have gone UNDER four of their past five road games at Houston and in an elimination game both teams will come out focused on the defensive ends similar to the first three games of the series, which all went UNDER. Draymond Green and Curry have each played in five Game 7s, including a win over Sacramento in 2023 when Curry scored 50 points. Take the Warriors on the moneyline and the first half UNDER.

Combine the Astros (-235) and the Warriors (-240) into a 2-team parlay at +102 odds.