Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Point Spread Picks

Minnesota is up 3-2 in its series against Denver and can close out the Nuggets with a home victory in Game 6. Don't expect it to happen. The Timberwolves are in deep trouble. Injuries have robbed them of Anthony Edwards, the NBA's third-leading scorer at 28.8 points per game, and scrappy point guard Donte DiVincenzo. Edwards has a hyperextended knee, and DiVincenzo has a ruptured Achilles tendon. Timberwolves small forward Jaden McDaniels didn't do his team any favors by scoring a meaningless layup in the final seconds of Game 4's blowout Minnesota victory. McDaniels drew the wrath of Nikola Jokic, who responded with maybe his best game of the series in Game 5 with 27 points, 16 assists, and 12 rebounds. Denver won that home game, 125-113, this past Monday. The Timberwolves trailed by as many as 27 points in that loss. Look for a fired-up Jokic to further torment the injury-riddled Timberwolves. Take the Nuggets.  

Denver has lost three straight, scoring 96 points in each of the last two games, shooting 34% and 38%. They're going to have to focus on defense to keep their season alive, down 3-1 in the series. During the regular season, the defense was 13th in shooting allowed and third in defending beyond the arc. The Nuggets are 29-14 at home and have won their last three at home as a double-digit favorite by 17, 13, and 23 points. Minnesota's defense was 12th in points allowed, seventh in shooting allowed, and 13th in 3-point defense, on an 18-9 run UNDER the total. They've held Denver to an average of 105.5 points in the four games, 16.5 points below its season average. Minnesota doesn't need to win and is dealing with injuries from Game 4, losing leading scorer Anthony Edwards (28.8 ppg, left knee), plus Donte DiVincenzo (12.2 ppg) for the rest of the playoffs. The wagering value is on the home team to stay alive with a huge effort against the banged-up visitors, along with a defensive first half. Take Denver + First Half UNDER the total.

Denver went on the road for Game 3, and the offense looked lost, shooting 34% while scoring 96 points, including 39 in the first half. During the regular season, the defense was 13th in shooting allowed and third in defending beyond the arc. Minnesota's defense was 12th in points given up, seventh in shooting allowed, and 13th in defending the 3-pointer. They've held Denver to an average of 108.6 points in the first three games, almost 14 points below its season average. With so much at stake, both defenses will give it their all, with the wagering value on a low-scoring first half. Take Denver/Minnesota First Half UNDER the total.

Perhaps it was overconfidence being up 19 points and riding a 13-game winning streak. But the Nuggets let the Timberwolves off the hook in their Game 2 playoff matchup this past Monday and lost, 119-114. Now with the scene shifting to Minnesota and the series tied 1-1 look for renewed urgency from the Nuggets. Denver has the NBA's top offense, leading the league in scoring and 3-point shooting and ranking second in field-goal percentage. Minnesota's defense has regressed from good to slightly above average. Nikola Jokic looked winded in Game 2 scoring 24 points. Three days of rest should help Jokic, who averaged 31.5 points per game and nearly a triple-double in four regular season contests against Minnesota. Jamal Murray is proving tough to contain for the Timberwolves, too, scoring 30 points in each of the first two games after averaging 31.5 points per game in the season series. Take the Nuggets. 

Minnesota led by 12 in Game 1, but couldn't hold it in a 116-105 loss. This is a tough matchup for the Timberwolves. The Nuggets have one of the best-shooting perimeter units in the playoffs with Jamal Murray and Tim Hardaway Jr., while Nikola Jokic does it all up front. Murray had 30 points in Game 1, and Jokic had a triple-double (25 points, 13 rebounds, 11 assists). They're No. 1 in the NBA in points scored and from long range (39.6%), plus second in shooting (49.6%). Denver is healthy, has won 13 straight, and is 29-13 at home. Play Denver.