Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Point Spread Picks

Two of the three meetings this season have gone UNDER, and the other one would have stayed UNDER if not for overtime. Houston comes off a 113-99 win over Toronto on Tuesday night, and it went UNDER. The Raptors made just nine of 36 3-point attempts, and the game stayed UNDER even though Houston shot 50 percent for the game and 60 percent in the first quarter. The Rockets are 36-28 UNDER in 2025-26. Denver is 5-1 UNDER in its past six home games. Houston is #4 in the NBA, allowing 109.4 points per game, and #7 in 3-point percentage defense, yielding a .349 3-point percentage. Take the UNDER. 

The Denver Nuggets have inched closer to Oklahoma City for the top seed in the NBA Western Conference playoffs. Denver is one of the best teams in the West, and they are playing very well right now. The Nuggets come in on a 6-game winning streak. The Nuggets have averaged winning those six games by 10.6 points per game. Houston isn't exactly playing their best basketball right now. The Rockets are 1-3 SU in their last four games, and 0-4 ATS. This isn't a good time for the Rockets to face the 20-6 Nuggets, as they are playing poorly. I like teams that are on a big winning streak because they bring it. I like Denver on the moneyline.

Denver has won eight of nine, including 125-118 over New Orleans on Wednesday when Nikola Jokic recorded another triple-double with 28 points, 12 assists, and 11 rebounds. The Nuggets have won 13 of 18 meetings with Houston, and they have won five of their past six road games outright. Denver has gone UNDER five of six Friday games. It has allowed an average of 112.5 points in its past eight games. Houston stayed UNDER in its 114-104 victory over Cleveland. The Rockets have allowed 110.3 points per game over their past nine games. The Nuggets played a sloppy game against the Pelicans and still came out with a win despite nine turnovers by Jokic, who fouled out in the fourth quarter. Denver had 20 turnovers overall and perhaps was looking ahead to tonight's NBA Cup matchup. Take the Nuggets on the moneyline, and bet the UNDER.

Denver has a chance to clinch the No. 4 seed in the West with a win. This is a big game as they can slip to the Play-In if they lose and the Warriors, Timberwolves, and Grizzlies win. The Nuggets make this trip with a healthy roster as the status of guard Jamal Murray (21 ppg, 6.1 apg) has been upgraded from doubtful to probable. Denver is third in the NBA in scoring and No. 1 in shooting (50.6%), while the defense is 14th in field goal shooting allowed. Houston is already locked into the No. 2 seed and has nothing to gain from this game. The Rockets come off blowout losses to the Clippers and Lakers failing to cover as underdogs of +10 and +13.5. Play Denver.