Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings

Sacramento won all three meetings this season and the Kings come into the play-in tournament with four wins in their past six games, including 109-98 over Phoenix on Sunday. The Kings shot 52 percent and hit 14 of 34 3-point tries. Dallas has lost five of seven and got routed 132-97 by Memphis in its final regular-season game. The Mavericks have failed to reach the 100-point mark in three of their past five games. Sacramento is 12-1 its past 13 games against Southwest Division foes. Dallas is 17-25 straight up on the road and it has lost its past three road contests by an average of 29.7 points. The Mavericks have been playing without Kyrie Irving since March and Anthony Davis is day-to-day with a adductor injury. Take the Kings on the moneyline.

The Dallas Mavericks currently hold the final spot in the NBA West play-in round. They lead 11th-place Phoenix by four games. They are also tied with Sacramento for that final spot. Sacramento seemed to get the wakeup call after allowing 140 points to lowly New Orleans, followed by 132 points to Golden St. Their wakeup call has been received as the Kings have allowed a very stingy 97ppg over their last three contests. This is a high total in a game involving a team like the Kings trending sharply UNDER. Dallas has trended down as well, as they have played four of their last five to the UNDER, as they have scored just over 105ppg in the five games. I like this one UNDER the total.

An excellent situational spot for the home team. Dallas plays its third consecutive road game, as well as its seventh road game over the last 10 contests. They walked all over the Kings in the last game, 132-96. The offense is 27th from the free throw line, while the defense is 20th in points surrendered and shooting allowed, plus 18th at defending beyond the arc. Star Luka Doncic (33.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 9.8 assists per game) has an Achilles injury and may not play. The Mavericks are 32-45 ATS after a victory and 0-9 ATS off a win as an underdog. Sacramento is a very good home team and has had two days to rest and regroup since being embarrassed by the Mavs. The Kings are ninth in the league in scoring (117.3 points per game) and 12th in shooting. They're 42-24 ATS after a defeat, 24-8 ATS off a home loss, 23-12 ATS off a loss as a favorite, and 17-6 ATS after a game where they allowed a 55% shooting or higher. Play Sacramento.