Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans ended a 10-game losing streak with a 140-133 OT win over Sacramento as C.J. McCollum had 43 points and Trey Murphy III had 18. The defense is 29th in points given up (119.4 per game), 29th in shooting allowed, and 22nd at defending beyond the arc. New Orleans is on a 23-11 run OVER the total. Dallas has adjusted surprisingly well since the Luca Donic trade winning four of five. The Mavericks are on a 10-3 run OVER the total and this shapes up as a game with more offense than defense. Play New Orleans/Dallas OVER the total.

The New Orleans Pelicans are just 12-35 on the season and bring a three-game losing streak to the floor at home vs. the Dallas Mavericks. The Pelicans allow 118 PPG on the season, and opponents shoot 48% from the field and 36% from deep. In the past 10 games, New Orleans has allowed at least 113 points per game. Dallas is just 25-22 on the season, and they have not defended well on the road, going 14-9 OVER the total. The Pelicans are 15-8 OVER in 23 home games this season, and even with Luka Doncic out, I expect the Mavs to put up a big number here. Bet the Mavericks/Pelicans OVER.

Dallas won the first meeting this season by 41 points, 132-91 in November, but the Mavericks are a just a slight favorite in tonight's matchup due to injuries. Still, the Mavericks have played a tough schedule this month and this will be a chance to get a win against a team that has been devastated by injuries the whole season. New Orleans is 9-32 straight up, 17-24 ATS and it is playing its fourth game in six days and the first three were on the road. The Pelicans are 1-12 ATS their past 13 Wednesday games and they have lost 10 in a row against Western Conference opponents. New Orleans also has lost nine of 10 home games and 14 of 18 overall. Five of the past six meetings at New Orleans have gone OVER. The Pelicans are 8-4 OVER their past 12 games and 7-1 OVER against Southwest Division teams. Take the Mavericks ATS, and play the OVER.