Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota finally figured out how to play 48 minutes against the Mavericks after leading in the final five minutes of every game in the series. Also, Karl-Anthony Towns got his shooting touch back and was 9 of 13 from the field after shooting just 28 percent the first three games. Now the Timberwolves head home for Game 5 with some confidence and momentum and they faced similar adversity in the Denver series and won Games 6 and 7 by playing great defense. They did the same on Tuesday as Luka Doncic got his points, but he and Kyrie Irving were just 13 of 39 for 33 percent from the field. Minnesota is in desperation mode while the Mavericks know they have another home game in hand to clinch the series. Take the Timberwolves - Max Play. 

Dallas has shown it knows how to close out games while the Timberwolves stumble down the stretch similar to what Indiana has been doing against Boston in their series. It also helps having Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving on your side as they scored 33 points apiece and the Mavericks took a 3-0 series lead with a 116-107 victory in Game 3. Dallas finished with a 12-3 run as Irving's playoff experience with Cleveland has guided the Mavericks to victories throughout the postseason. The game went OVER by 15.5 points and all three games in the series have gone OVER and the Mavericks have gone OVER four in a row. Dallas won't be interested in a gentleman's sweep and it won't take any chances especially with center Dereck Lively II questionable with a head and neck injury and who may need some extra time off before the next series. Take the Mavericks and the OVER.

Minnesota is going to have to lean on its great defense after dropping the first two of this series at home. The Timberwolves were No. 1 in the NBA in points allowed during the regular season and are fourth in the playoffs. Minnesota is on a 55-39 run UNDER the First Half Total, including 47-30 UNDER the First Half Total as an underdog. They're also 19-10 ATS on the road versus winning teams and 19-10 ATS as a dog. In addition, NBA road teams like the Timberwolves revenging a loss to an opponent of 3 points or less off a loss as a favorite are 44-23 ATS. Dallas is fifth in the postseason in points given up and second in field goal shooting allowed (43.7%). With Minnesota 35-25 UNDER the First Half Total against winning teams, look for a fierce defensive effort from both teams right from the opening tipoff and back the talented dog for the game. Take Minnesota + the First Half UNDER the total. 

Minnesota played well for about 44 minutes, but then resembled Indiana the night before down the stretch with bad shots and a loss of composure and Dallas won 108-105. The Timberwolves know what they have to correct in Game 2 and even if Luka Doncic gets his points they have to do a better job of containing Kyrie Irving as he not only scored 30 points, but had free rein on the drive and the break. Dallas is in the usual letdown spot for a team that stole a game on the road to regain home court advantage and it was the first time in six tries the Mavericks won the first game of a playoff series under coach Jason Kidd. Look for Minnesota to clamp down defensively as it did when its back was against the wall in the Denver series. Take the Timberwolves.

Minnesota first had to play without Karl-Anthony Towns for nearly five weeks and it weathered that storm. More recently, the Timberwolves had to come back not only from a 3-2 series deficit, but had to come from behind after being down 15 points at halftime to win on the road at Denver in Game 7 on Sunday night. Overcoming all that adversity has made the Timberwolves a stronger team as they head into the Western Conference final against Dallas, which lost by 44 points in the last meeting on Jan. 31, although the Mavericks were playing short-handed. Minnesota is 38-24 UNDER in the first half its past 62 games, and Sunday's full game stayed UNDER by 13.5 points as the Timberwolves played outstanding defense for the second game in a row. The Mavericks stayed UNDER three of their last four games against Oklahoma City. Take the Timberwolves on the moneyline (full game), and take the first half UNDER.