Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers Point Spread Picks

You know things are bad on the offensive end for the Pacers when center Jay Huff was their leading scorer. That was the case in their last game two days ago against the Wizards. All-Star and team-leading scorer Pascal Siakam has missed Indiana's two games since the season resumed following All-Star break. He is questionable here with a hamstring injury. Dallas will be without its top score and main offensive weapon with Cooper Flagg sidelined by a foot injury. Flagg averages 20.4 points per game and also is No. 1 on the team in assists. The Mavericks are reduced to counting on PJ Washington for a big offensive showing. Washington was 5-for-17 from the field in Dallas' last game, a 122-111 road lost to the Timberwolves two days ago. The Mavericks and Pacers met earlier this season when only 212 points were scored in Dallas', 107-105, victory on Oct. 29. Take the UNDER.

Dallas is working on two days of rest after a close loss to Philadelphia. They finally were able to get a full contingent of players with Max Christie and Spencer Dinwiddie playing over 30 minutes off the bench contributing 20 points and 12 rebounds. Indiana is working on one day of rest after playing an overtime game at Minnesota. They've played six of their last seven on the road. They're a big favorite but the defense is 19th in points surrendered and 26th in field goal shooting allowed. The Pacers are on a 7-14 ATS run and two games ago failed to cover against Philadelphia as a double-digit favorite. Pay Dallas. 

Indiana has plenty of offensive punch ranked 11th in the NBA in scoring and fourth in shooting (48.8%), while the defense is 10th in shooting allowed and sixth at defending beyond the arc. The Pacers have split their last two games, knocking off defending champion Boston, 135-132, as a +6.5 underdog. They're working on two days of rest and are on an 11-7 spread run. While Indiana is rested, Dallas is playing the second of a back-to-back after a win over Orlando. The Mavs are 21st in the NBA in field goal shooting and on a 5-7-1 ATS run. Play Indiana. 

The Indiana Pacers have somewhat abandoned their break-neck speed of putting up shots early in the shot clock for a bit tamer strategy, and it has shown results. Indiana has played to an 8-2 UNDER mark in their last 10 games. The numbers are looking different as their games have gone from total points scored of 245 a game, down to 237, so I see some value on the UNDER here. The Mavericks have played five of their last eight to the UNDER, and these teams have played UNDER four of the past six meetings. Oddsmakers have over adjusted the high scoring nature of the new NBA game. Prior to January, 54% of all games were going OVER, but that has since flipped to a 58.7% UNDER trend. Make the play on the Pacers/Mavericks UNDER.