Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers

Dallas is working on two days of rest after a close loss to Philadelphia. They finally were able to get a full contingent of players with Max Christie and Spencer Dinwiddie playing over 30 minutes off the bench contributing 20 points and 12 rebounds. Indiana is working on one day of rest after playing an overtime game at Minnesota. They've played six of their last seven on the road. They're a big favorite but the defense is 19th in points surrendered and 26th in field goal shooting allowed. The Pacers are on a 7-14 ATS run and two games ago failed to cover against Philadelphia as a double-digit favorite. Pay Dallas. 

Indiana has plenty of offensive punch ranked 11th in the NBA in scoring and fourth in shooting (48.8%), while the defense is 10th in shooting allowed and sixth at defending beyond the arc. The Pacers have split their last two games, knocking off defending champion Boston, 135-132, as a +6.5 underdog. They're working on two days of rest and are on an 11-7 spread run. While Indiana is rested, Dallas is playing the second of a back-to-back after a win over Orlando. The Mavs are 21st in the NBA in field goal shooting and on a 5-7-1 ATS run. Play Indiana. 

The Indiana Pacers have somewhat abandoned their break-neck speed of putting up shots early in the shot clock for a bit tamer strategy, and it has shown results. Indiana has played to an 8-2 UNDER mark in their last 10 games. The numbers are looking different as their games have gone from total points scored of 245 a game, down to 237, so I see some value on the UNDER here. The Mavericks have played five of their last eight to the UNDER, and these teams have played UNDER four of the past six meetings. Oddsmakers have over adjusted the high scoring nature of the new NBA game. Prior to January, 54% of all games were going OVER, but that has since flipped to a 58.7% UNDER trend. Make the play on the Pacers/Mavericks UNDER.

Dallas heads out on the road after a three-game homestand. The Dallas defense is 18th in points surrendered (117.2 points per game), 20th in field goal shooting allowed (48%), and 14th at defending beyond the arc. The Mavericks are on a 60-74 spread run, including 15-29 ATS in non-conference action. Indiana plays its second straight home contest after a 129-115 rout of Detroit. The Pacers are No. 1 in the NBA in scoring (123.8 points per game) and shooting (50.8%). They're 18-9 ATS after playing a home game, plus 17-5 ATS when playing four or fewer games in 10 days. Play Indiana.