Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland came home after a stunning win in Game 2, but lost lost Games 3 and 4 at home, along with their best two players in five-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell (calf) and Jarrett Allen (ribs). The Cavaliers are 76-119 ATS on the road against teams that outrebound their opponents by 3+ boards per game. Boston's defense was fifth in points given up and second in shooting allowed during the regular season, while the offense was second in points scored and 3-point shooting. The Celtics are 45-37 as a favorite and 13-5 ATS at home after playing a road game. Play Boston. 

Donovan Mitchell is doubtful with a calf injury and that's the last thing Cleveland wants to hear after getting blown out in two of the first three games of this series, including 106-93 on Saturday. Jayson Tatum had 33 points and Jaylen Brown added 28 for the Celtics and the teams went UNDER for the second time in a row and by 11.5 points in Game 3. The Cavaliers shot 43 percent overall and hit just 12 of 36 on 3-point tries. Cleveland is 1-10 ATS its past 11 playoff games as an underdog and 2-10 ATS as a dog its past 12 games overall. Boston is 10-4 ATS its past 14 road contests and 18-8-3 ATS overall following a win. The Celtics are 8-3 UNDER as favorites their past 11 postseason games and the Cavaliers are 14-3 UNDER overall as underdogs of 5.0-10.5 points. Cleveland is 37-21 UNDER in the first half. Take the Celtics and the first half UNDER and the full game to stay UNDER.

The Celtics had the best road mark (27-14) in the Eastern Conference during the regular season, then won two at Miami, 104-84 and 102-88, in the playoffs. Boston's defense was fifth in points given up and second in shooting allowed during the regular season, while the offense was second in points scored and 3-point shooting. The Celtics are 91-63 ATS off a double-digit home loss, 97-70 ATS against winning teams, and 31-19 UNDER the total on the road versus winning teams. In addition, NBA road favorites off a double-digit loss as a favorite are 25-4 ATS revenging a home loss to an opponent. Cleveland shocked the NBA world with a win in Game 2, though they are on a 7-8 SU, 6-9 spread run. That includes a 120-110 home loss to Charlotte as a 14-point favorite and an ugly Game 1 loss to Boston, 120-95. The Cavaliers focus on defense with an offense that was 20th in points scored, 15th from long range, and 22nd from the free throw line. Cleveland is 21-31 ATS after a victory and 50-30 UNDER the total at home after a win by 20+ points. Play Boston and UNDER the total. 

Cleveland has a terrific backcourt in Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, leading an offense that was 12th in the league in shooting and eighth in assists. Both guards average over six assists per game. The Cavaliers are 30-21 OVER the total versus winning teams and 54-34 OVER as a road dog of 12.5 to 18 points. The Celtics are on a 9-5 run OVER the total. Boston played a defensive-oriented team in the first round but is still fifth in the postseason in points scored and fourth in shooting (47.7%). During the regular season, the Celtics were second in scoring (120.6 ppg), ninth in shooting, and second from 3-point land (38.8%). Boston is 24-13 OVER the total as a double-digit favorite and 54-41 OVER as home chalk. And three of the last five meetings between these teams have sailed OVER the total. Play Cleveland/Boston OVER the total. 

Cleveland just finished a grueling seven-game series against Orlando and the Cavaliers had to come back from an 18-point deficit in Game 7 to win 106-94. Now they have to go and face the mighty Celtics on the road with only one day of rest while Boston has had five days off after winning and covering their final three games against Miami. The Celtics are 6-1-1 ATS as home favorites of at least 11 points and Cleveland is 1-8 ATS its past nine games as a road underdog overall and 1-8 ATS as a road dog of 11 points or more. Kristaps Porzingis (calf) is out for the Celtics, but it hasn't hurt them so far as they shot 55 percent and hit 16 of 40 3-point tries in Game 5 and won by 34 points against the Heat. The UNDER is 16-7 in Boston's past 23 conference semifinal games and Cleveland is 9-4 UNDER its past 13 games as a road underdog. The Cavaliers are 19-25 ATS on the road this season and 17-8 UNDER their past 25 road games. Take the Celtics as a Max Play and the UNDER.