This is a good matchup for Casey Kenney. He faces Louis Smolka, who is not a great athlete, short on physicality, and speed. He also lacks a wrestling base to take the fight to the ground. Smolka is 2-5 his last seven UFC fights, including four losses in a row. Smolka has defended 30% of his opponents' takedown attempts, a poor ratio. He faces lefty Casey Kenney, a superior athlete with a significant speed advantage. Kenney had won six fights in a row until the last one, losing to Merab Dvalishvili, who has outstanding power. Kenny faces a very different opponent here as Smolka has less athleticism and power. With Kenney possessing a takedown accuracy rate of 80%, this is a far better matchup for him. Back Casey Kenney to win the fight.