Joel Alvarez has split his first two UFC fights. He is not a puncher, preferring to take opponents to the ground. This is a tough matchup against Joe Duffy, who is more experienced and a submission specialist. Duffy has a winning record over seven UFC bouts, with a pair of submission victories (Rear-Naked Choke; Triangle Choke), along with one KO and one unanimous decision. He comes off a unanimous decision loss to Marc Diakiese, but all three of his UFC defeats were when he stepped up against quality opposition in the division. Duffy is 32 years old and has fought at a much higher level over the last five years, while Alvarez has not fought the same caliber of opponents. Back Joe Duffy to win the bout.