St. Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay is looking for some pitching after surrendering 15 runs in the first two games. Steven Matz has had ERAs of 3.44, 2.08, and 3.05 in each of the last three years. He also threw great for his new team in spring training, pitching 11 scoreless innings. St. Louis is in rebuilding mode, going with young players. There's very little proven with this roster, one that ranked 19th in runs, 18th in on-base percentage, 20th in steals, and 27th in slugging in 2025. Starter Dustin May is a classic home/away guy, with a 6.59 ERA on the road last season, but 3.72 at home. In his previous campaign, he had a 3.20 ERA at home, where he held visitors to a .217 average. Play Tampa Bay/St. Louis UNDER the total. 

Tampa Bay had a +31 run differential last year, and pitching remains the strength of the team. Drew Rasmussen gets the nod, going 10-5 in 2025 with a 2.76 ERA, holding batters to a .214 average. He allowed two runs in his first four starts last March/April (20+ innings), including no runs in a 6-1 win in his first start in five innings. St. Louis was outscored by 65 runs last season, the fourth-worst differential in the NL. They're off a losing campaign and are rebuilding on the fly, leaning towards youth after letting some veterans walk. The offense was 19th in runs scored, 18th in on-base percentage, 20th in steals, and 27th in slugging. Matthew Liberatore comes off an 8-12 season with a 4.21 ERA. His first two starts last April were awful (12 innings, 14 hits, 8 runs), losses to the Angels (9-7) and Pirates (8-4). Play Tampa Bay. 

St. Louis has a losing road record and ends a six-game road trip. The Cardinals are 2-4 in the last six starts made by Matthew Liberatore (4.13 ERA), who has allowed 16 runs in those games (24+ innings, 34 hits). The Cardinals are on a 3-7 slide after losing to the Rays yesterday, 10-6. The offense is 15th in runs scored and on-base percentage, 20th in steals, and 24th in slugging. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is No. 1 in steals and plays its fifth consecutive home contest. Ryan Pepiot has a 3.46 ERA at home, where he's holding batters to a .228 average, while the bullpen is 12th in ERA (3.82). Play Tampa Bay.