Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers are 13-12 to start 2024, and they face the .500 Seattle Mariners in the rubber match of their three-game series this afternoon. The Mariners lost yesterday to fall to .500 and a team that is off a loss that put them exactly at .500 have a -7.7% ROI in their next game. That gets worse if the loss was as a road dog and they are a road dog again. The Texas Rangers are 13-7 in the last 20 meetings vs. the Mariners, and have long held an edge in this series as they have a 4.2% ROI covering the last 367 contests. Make the play on Texas.

This looks like a hangover start for the Rangers after winning it all a year ago. The organization spent a lot of money to build a champion, and it cashed in. The Rangers are a pedestrian 12-12 to start the season. They have deficits on the mound and at the plate, and they have looked very ordinary to this point. The Rangers are heading in the wrong direction with their 6-10 record in their last 16 games. They have come home off a long road trip looking to get healthy, but lost the opener of the homestand 4-0 to Seattle last night. The Mariners have had the Rangers' number as they are 24-14 in the last 38 meetings, including 4-1 most recently. Make the play on Seattle.

Seattle is on a 7-3 run, including winning three of their last four on the road. Pitching keeps them in games, ranked eighth in the majors in ERA (3.48) and No. 1 in WHIP, plus third in the bullpen (2.69 ERA). Logan Gilbert (2.33 ERA) starts with a 29-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 27 innings. His teams are 58-35 when he starts, including 25-13 on the road. Texas is 22nd in team ERA (4.19) and 21st in WHIP, with a bullpen that is 23rd in ERA (4.86). Dane Dunning (3.91 ERA) takes the mound and the Rangers have been .500 (5-5) at home. With Texas on a 33-41 run at home against divisional opponents, back the pitching-rich visitors. Take Seattle as a Max Play. 

Texas plays its seventh consecutive road contest on a 2-3 skid. They're a strong home team but .500 on the road. Starter Dane Dunning has a 4.76 ERA against the Mariners this season. His teams are 7-21 when he starts on the road, including 5-21 as a road underdog. Seattle plays its seventh straight home game and is 74-45 as chalk of -150 or less. The Mariners have great balance ranked 12th in runs scored with a pitching staff that is third in ERA (3.76) and WHIP, plus fourth in the pen (3.50 ERA). George Kirby (3.46 ERA) has a 2.89 ERA at home with an 89-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 87+ home innings. Seattle is 17-3 off a loss to a division rival as home chalk, so back the talented home team in bounce-back mode. Play Seattle.