Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Picks

Seattle has lost five games in a row and arrives at Tropicana Field this afternoon looking like a team out of answers. We had the game total UNDER in the series opener here, and Tampa Bay's lineup blew right through the number in a 7-2 win, then followed it with a 6-1 beatdown Saturday. The Rays have outscored the Mariners 13-3 through the first two games of this set, and Tropicana Field has been the best home park in the American League this year, a 34-14 mark that speaks for itself. Emerson Hancock has quietly become Seattle's best starter this season, but one strong arm can't fix an offense that's gone cold on the road, where the Mariners sit a middling 20-28. Ian Seymour gets the ball for Tampa Bay off a steady run in his bulk role, and the Rays carry a real trend backing them at home in exactly this price range. This is a short favorite that has earned it with two dominant wins already in this series, and I don't see the formula changing on getaway day. Tampa Bay is the play this afternoon.

Seattle was shut out 2-0 by Miami on Wednesday, five hits and two walks and nothing to show for it, the latest entry in an offensive slump that's left the Mariners hitting under .200 with runners in scoring position since mid-June. That cold offense walks into Tropicana Field against Nick Martinez, who has been one of the steadier arms in the league all year, with a 2.60 ERA built on rarely beating himself with walks. Luis Castillo draws the start for Seattle, and his season ERA sits near 4.80, numbers that would normally invite scoring, but this Mariners lineup hasn't given opposing pitchers much to worry about lately, regardless of who's on the mound. Tampa Bay's own offense has been steady rather than explosive, and a dome game limits the kind of wind-aided scoring that can wreck a total. Two competent-enough arms, a Rays club playing its usual clean brand of baseball at home, and a Seattle lineup that's forgotten how to string hits together add up to a total more likely to stay under than not. Take the UNDER tonight.

Seattle's offense is 12th in runs scored, fourth in steals, and 11th in slugging. George Kirby has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts. The bullpen is 12th in the majors in ERA (3.90), while the defense is sixth in fielding percentage. Tampa Bay is a .500 team with an offense that is 19th in on-base percentage and 14th in slugging. Since being acquired from the White Sox, Adrian Houser has had one start at home with his new team, and allowed four runs and eight base runners in 6+ innings against St. Louis. Play Seattle.

Seattle's versatile offense is 12th in runs scored, fourth in steals, and 11th in slugging. Bryan Woo (2.95 ERA) is holding batters to a .207 average with 166 Ks in 164+ innings. He helped beat Tampa Bay three weeks ago, 6-3, with nine strikeouts in six innings and only one walk. The Mariners have won four of his last five starts. The bullpen is eighth in the majors in ERA (3.68), while the defense is sixth in fielding percentage. Tampa Bay's offense is 19th in on-base percentage and 14th in slugging. The Rays have lost three of the last four starts made by Drew Rasmussen, including as favorites of -150 and -115. Play Seattle.