San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals offense has been shaky all season. Last night after six straight games, averaging just three runs a game, the Nats came alive scoring 11 runs to even the series with the Giants. The Nats have actually been playing quite well. While they are 10 games under .500, they are 17-12 in their last 29 at home. This team for the season has carried a 10.1% ROI playing on them at home. The Giants pitching, coming into last night had allowed 19 total runs in nine games. They coughed up 11 to the Nats. I like the way Washington has played at home, especially as a dog. Make the play on Washington.

The San Francisco Giants have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games and played themselves up to .500 and within striking distance of the NL wildcard race. The Giants have gotten outstanding pitching in the 10 games having allowed just 2.3 runs per contest. Hayden Birdsong is 4-2 in six decisions since being inserted in the starting rotation. Opponents have scored just 17 total runs in the six starts or fewer than three runs per contest. The Nationals will send MacKenzie Gore to te mound, and he has struggled of late. Gore has seen opponents rack up 48 runs in his last seven decisions, or just about seven runs per contest. The Nats are just 4-9 in their last 13 games. The Giants are on the move with a quality starter, and I like them in this spot. Make the play on San Francisco.

San Francisco took two of three at Cincinnati, part of an 8-3 run. The offense is 12th in on-base percentage, and Logan Webb (3.49 ERA) is on the mound, off of a 1-0 shutout of Oakland going the distance. They've won seven of the last eight as a favorite and are 8-2 versus losing teams. Washington is on a 4-8 slide with a losing home mark. The offense is 18th in runs scored, 16th in on-base percentage, and 26th in slugging. The defense is 23rd in fielding percentage, and the pitching is 24th in ERA (4.39), including 26th in the pen (4.41 ERA). That bullpen will be tested as Patrick Corbin (5.88 ERA) has struggled all season, with batters hitting .304 off him. Washington is 4-16 in his last 20 starts. Play San Francisco as a Max Play. 

The Washington Nationals won the World Series in 2019, but they ripped that team apart and have since posted a 220-333 record with a -5.6% ROI. They have won three straight and will look for a series sweep today behind left-hander Pat Corbin. Corbin was a 22-game winner in the 2019 World Series run, but has since gone a woeful 37-68 in his last 105 decisions. Washington in those games has a horrific -16.2% ROI. The Nationals also carry the baggage of a 1-14 mark in their last 15 games when they came into the game riding a three-game winning streak. The Nats are 1-8 in their last nine when winning the first two games of a three-game road series. Make the play on San Francisco.