Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Betting Picks

Randy Vasquez has been the best story in San Diego's rotation this month, and Craig Stammen said as much this week, calling him a pitcher on a mission to prove he belongs in the rotation. Vasquez takes a 9-6 record and a 4.19 ERA into a spot the Padres need badly: they have dropped the first two games of this series to Pittsburgh, including a 1-0 gut-punch on Tuesday, and they are clinging to a one-game edge for the final NL Wild Card spot. Bubba Chandler has been outstanding for the Pirates since mid-July, working with a sub-3.00 ERA over that stretch, but Pittsburgh's offense, not its pitching, has been the story of this series. The Pirates are hitting .213 as a team over their last ten games and needed a ninth-inning homer from Oneil Cruz just to escape with that 1-0 win on Tuesday. San Diego gets a desperate home lineup, a pitcher working to lock down his rotation spot, and an opponent that has to keep grinding out zeros to win. This is the kind of spot the Padres have found their way through all August. I am on the Padres.

Paul Skenes still has swing-and-miss stuff, but the command has slipped, and that's what I'm building tonight's total around. His last time out against Detroit, he lasted just four and a third innings, walking four and allowing three runs, the kind of short start that pushes extra work onto Pittsburgh's bullpen far earlier than a team wants. That pen sits in the middle of the pack in relief ERA with a committee approach at the back end, and I don't love it holding a lead or a tie for five-plus innings against a San Diego lineup that has enough pop to make a shaky reliever pay. Michael King has been terrific on the other side, going at least six innings in each of his last three starts and sitting at a 3.38 ERA on the year, with a Padres bullpen that ranks among the best in baseball behind him. But King and a good pen shutting the door doesn't erase what Pittsburgh's lineup has done all season: at 63-69 the Pirates are well under .500, yet they're actually outscoring San Diego per game, 4.95 runs to 4.31, with the pitching and defense the reason they're behind in the standings, not the bats. That's the same read that has me covered on the run line: I don't need Pittsburgh to win this outright, just to hang within a run against a Padres team that hasn't shown it can consistently pull away from an offense this capable, even with its ace on the mound. Take the OVER tonight, and bet Pittsburgh to win on the runline.

The Padres got their dose of reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes yesterday, losing to the Pirates, 7-1. That loss evened the series at 1-1 after the Padres blanked Pittsburgh 5-0 on Monday. San Diego has defeated the Pirates in 12 of the last 14 matchups. Now the Padres drop down from facing Skenes to the wildly inconsistent Mitch Keller. He is off to an excellent start at 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA, but Keller has never been able to turn the corner into becoming a good starter. Keller was 6-15 with a 4.19 ERA last season. He is 43-65 lifetime in the majors with a 4.47 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Michael King (0-1, 3.38 ERA) draws the start for San Diego. King has a career mark of 31-30 with a 3.24 ERA. The Padres hold a strong bullpen edge with closer Mason Miller. Take the Padres. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 6-4 to open the season. Paul Skeenes has not found himself yet in the early going, posting a 1-1 record and a 9.53 ERA. He has walked four and struck out just six through his two starts. San Diego is 5-5 on the season, and will turn to Nick Pivetta to get them over .500. Pivetta had a weak first start, but came back in his last outing, working 5 innings with one hit, no runs, and eight strikeouts. It sure looks like Pivetta is ahead of Skeenes at this early stage of the season, and we're catching value on the road squad. Make the play on San Diego.