Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Betting Picks

We had Washington on the moneyline last night, and it cashed the hard way: tied 3-3 after nine, tied again 4-4 after ten, and then six Nationals runs in the eleventh for a 10-4 final that only looks lopsided on the scoreboard. Andrew Painter was solid before he left, four innings of one-run ball with four strikeouts and a 2-1 lead, pulled for hamstring tightness rather than for anything Washington did to him. What matters tonight is what came after. Philadelphia ran eight relievers through eleven innings, Jhoan Duran and José Alvarado among them, and a staff that far into its bullpen doesn’t get whole again overnight. That is exactly why Cristopher Sánchez is the arm you want going in this spot. He is 14-4 with a 2.61 ERA and 168 strikeouts, and he opened August with six shutout innings and eleven strikeouts against Baltimore. Length is his game, and length is what Philadelphia needs. Miles Mikolas counters at 3-8 with a 5.67 ERA, offering Washington no such cover. Philadelphia is the right side tonight. 

Seven straight losses have buried Washington under a lopsided price tonight, and the market isn't pricing in how bad Andrew Painter has been. Philadelphia's rookie right-hander is 1-8 with a 6.72 ERA this season; opponents are hitting .304 off him, and those numbers don't belong on a favorite at this price. The Phillies made it look easy again last night, riding eight scoreless innings from Jesús Luzardo to a 5-0 win that pushed the Nationals' skid to seven. Jake Irvin takes the ball for Washington in his second start back from a shoulder injury, and his own 2-5 record with a 5.56 ERA is nothing to lean on either. This isn't a bet on Irvin outdueling anybody. It's a bet that Painter, who has allowed multiple runs in most of his starts and is averaging eleven hits per nine innings, keeps giving a mispriced favorite away. A rookie that hittable doesn't hold up against a lineup capable of stringing something together early. Washington is the right side tonight.

Philadelphia has won three straight, and Monday's version was about as emphatic as it gets: Derek Hill's go-ahead grand slam and a two-run blast from Bryce Harper turned a tight game into a 6-3 win over this same Washington club. Jesus Luzardo takes the ball tonight carrying a 3.57 ERA, a real step up from Zack Littell's 4.94 mark on the other side, and Washington's staff has been one of the leakier units in the league all year even with the game's highest-scoring offense playing behind it. The Nationals can score in bunches, but that offense hasn't solved Luzardo when he's been sharp, and Washington still has to deal with a Phillies club that just added Luis Arraez to the lineup at the deadline. The pitching gap alone is enough to lean this way by a run and a half, with Philadelphia holding the deeper roster and the better arm on a night Washington is trying to avoid a fourth straight loss in this series. Philadelphia wins on the runline.