Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas Rangers Betting Picks

Texas has split its first two. The offense has drawn just four walks while striking out 24 times. Their on-base percentage ranks 20th, similar to 2025, when they ranked 22nd in runs scored and 26th in on-base percentage. The plus side is that the bullpen has not allowed a run in two games, after being fifth in the majors last year with a 3.62 ERA. Philadelphia starter Jesus Luzardo won 15 games last year while striking out 216 in 183+ innings. He faced Texas once last season, winning 3-2 with a 1.50 ERA against the Rangers. Take Texas/Philadelphia UNDER the total. 

The LA Dodgers seem to be the choice to win it all again, but many believe the Phillies can make a run. The Phillies opened the season at home with a comfortable 5-3 win over the Texas Rangers. Jacob deGrom will get the ball for Texas, and his career has been marked with a lot of great starts washed away by his offense that seemed to never come through when he was on the mound. This game should be different. Aaron Nola is off a season that saw him go 5-10 with a 5.89 ERA. He was 0-3 with a 9.15 ERA in day games. I think this is a good spot for Texas. Make the play on the Texas Rangers.

Texas returns the same run producers as last year. That's not good news on an offense that ranked 22nd in runs, 18th in homers, and 26th in on-base percentage. 36-year-old Nathan Eovaldi threw six innings in last year's opener, a 5-2 loss at home to Boston. The Rangers were 1-3 in his first four starts of 2025, losing all three by more than one run. Philadelphia won the National League East and returns a star-studded lineup that ranked eighth in runs scored, ninth in homers, and fourth in on-base percentage. Ace Cristopher Sanchez had a 2.50 ERA last year, when he was 6-0 at home with a 1.94 ERA. He faced Texas once in 2025, winning 9-1. Play Philadelphia on the run-line.  

Texas looks to salvage the final game of the series following a 3-2 loss on Saturday. The Rangers have won four straight when Patrick Corbin starts the third game of a series and they are 4-0 when he goes up against teams with winning records. Corbin has been a pleasant surprise for Texas, which has won four of his past five outings. He has only allowed eight earned runs his past 24 1/3 innings. Philadelphia is 0-7 its past seven road games against against left-handed starters and the Phillies are 10-1-1 UNDER in Zack Wheeler's past 12 starts versus AL West opponents. The Phillies have gone UNDER six of seven Sunday games and the Rangers have stayed UNDER four straight home games against teams with winning road records. Texas is getting good value at home where it is 36-23 in 2025. Take the Rangers and the UNDER.

Philadelphia is great at home (37-21) but 29-28 on the road. The Phillies are 5-8 in the last 13 starts made by Jesus Luzardo (4.32 ERA). The bullpen is ranked 23rd in ERA (4.34). Philadelphia is on a 6-5 run, losing as favorites of -140, -135, -230, -120, and -175. They've also dropped three of their last five on the road. Meanwhile, Texas is 36-22 at home and ranked No. 1 in fielding percentage, plus fifth in steals. Batters are hitting .198 off starter Jacob deGrom (2.80 ERA), who has a 1.91 ERA at home. The relief staff is fourth in the majors with a 3.38 ERA, so back home field. Play Texas.