Washington at San Francisco

The Washington Nationals won it all in 2019, but quickly broke that team up and have since been 219-333 with a -6% ROI over the 552 games, which is significant. They have started the season at 4-6, and won 8-1 here last night. It should be different tonight as the Giants will start highly-reliable Blake Snell. Snell has won 10 of his last 13 decisions going back to last year, and opponents have scored three or fewer runs 11 of the 13. The Nationals really struggle when they score three or fewer runs. Since the start of the 2020 season they are a woeful 44-223 when they score three or fewer runs, and that has become the norm for Snell. I like San Francisco in this one.