Washington at Philadelphia

Philadelphia has won three straight, and Monday's version was about as emphatic as it gets: Derek Hill's go-ahead grand slam and a two-run blast from Bryce Harper turned a tight game into a 6-3 win over this same Washington club. Jesus Luzardo takes the ball tonight carrying a 3.57 ERA, a real step up from Zack Littell's 4.94 mark on the other side, and Washington's staff has been one of the leakier units in the league all year even with the game's highest-scoring offense playing behind it. The Nationals can score in bunches, but that offense hasn't solved Luzardo when he's been sharp, and Washington still has to deal with a Phillies club that just added Luis Arraez to the lineup at the deadline. The pitching gap alone is enough to lean this way by a run and a half, with Philadelphia holding the deeper roster and the better arm on a night Washington is trying to avoid a fourth straight loss in this series. Philadelphia wins on the runline.