Washington at Cincinnati

The Cincinnati Reds are a much-improved team over last year, as they have started 17-15. They are in 2nd place in the NL Central, just two games out of first. The Reds have some hidden value because they are +37 runs in scoring margin over their opponents. That is the 3rd best in the NL, so this team should have a better record. The Washington Nationals are 14-18 and carry a negative 31 scoring margin into this game, which means their record should be worse. The Reds are 3-0 on the season against a line of -150 or better, so they have been winning the games they should. Washington is just 1-5 on the season when coming off at least three straight division games. Make the play on Cincinnati.