Washington at Arizona

Arizona’s offense posted a 7-0 shutout loss in its most recent game and has dropped four of five — not a lineup in any rhythm heading into this series. Foster Griffin is 6-2 with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 67 innings, and the Nationals are 19-12 on the road, which is the foundation of the ML case. The honest complication is Merrill Kelly’s 5.06 ERA — he’s going to give Washington some runs tonight, and that’s baked in. But the UNDER doesn’t rely on Kelly being good. It relies on Arizona's being unable to answer. This offense has been shut down completely in its most recent game and hasn’t been able to get out of its own way against anyone lately. A cold lineup facing a Griffin who has been consistent all season projects to a low total on Arizona’s end. Worth noting: Chase Field has actually gone UNDER more often than over this season — a quiet counterpoint to its reputation as a launching pad. I'm going with Washington on the moneyline and betting the UNDER.