Toronto at Texas

Dylan Cease has been about as good as any pitcher in baseball lately, working at least five innings in each of his last five starts and allowing more than one earned run just once in that stretch. That's the danger tonight, and it's real. But Toronto has still gone just 4-6 over its last ten games even with Cease pitching well behind them, and the lineup in front of him has managed only 4.05 runs a game on the season, nothing special. Texas is 6-4 over its last ten and gets a better version of Kumar Rocker than the one roughed up in Tampa Bay two weeks ago. Rocker limited Arizona to one earned run over four innings his last time out, and even with a 4.54 ERA on the season, he's shown he can keep a lineup as unspectacular as Toronto's in check on a given night. The market's already reacting to Texas, with the price shortening since it opened, and as the underdog here, the Rangers don't need to outduel Cease, just find a way to win one game. I'm on Texas on the moneyline tonight.