Toronto at Cincinnati

The Blue Jays lead the AL East by 2.5 games over Boston and New York, but the gap has narrowed over the past two weeks as Toronto (8-8) plays .500 ball while the Red Sox (11-6) and Yankees (12-4) dominate. The problem for the Jays is that the bullpen can't stop a nosebleed. They blew another ninth-inning lead in yesterday's 5-4 loss to the Reds, marking their 23rd blown save of the season (sixth-most in the majors), and the bullpen ERA has gone from 3.62 in the first half of the season to 5.36 since (third-worst in baseball). Cincinnati is four games back in the NL wild-card hunt, scoring 12 runs in its past two games in back-to-back wins against the Cardinals and Jays. The Reds have their top starter on the hill today in Nick Lodolo, and this left-hander has posted a stellar 1.04 WHIP in 134.1 innings this year, striking out 130 batters. He's held hitters to a .217 average at home, and he's 3-1 in his past four decisions. As favorites up to -150, the Reds are 21-12 all-time with Lodolo on the mound. Take Cincinnati to grab the win.