Toronto at Chicago

Colin Rea has been an unpleasant surprise on the mound for Chicago over the past month. The right-hander is 5-5 on the season with a 5.35 ERA, and the recent trend is worse: Rea has allowed multiple runs in each of his last five outings, producing a 5.40 ERA over that stretch with just one quality start to show for it. The command that made him a serviceable rotation piece has eroded, and he carries those struggles into this afternoon against a Toronto lineup that features Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ernie Clement — who is hitting .309 with seven home runs this season — and a patient group of hitters that knows how to work counts and apply sustained pressure. Patrick Corbin brings his own challenges to the mound, but the Jays have enough offensive quality to stay in this game regardless of what he delivers. The +1.5 cushion is the play: it accounts for the realistic scenario where Chicago scores first, and it accounts for the fact that Rea's recent form makes locking down a multi-run victory for the Cubs a difficult proposition. Wrigley favors offense on both sides, but the pitching narrative here favors Toronto staying within touching distance. Take the Blue Jays on the runline this afternoon as my MLB Game of the Week.