Toronto at Boston

Toronto dropped the series opener at Fenway last night, 6-4, and the Blue Jays enter this weekend under .500 at 47-57, a record that's hard to dress up. But the pitcher taking the ball this afternoon changes the equation. Dylan Cease has been the one true stabilizer in a rotation gutted by injuries, sitting on a 2.67 ERA with 155 strikeouts and a strikeout rate north of 36 percent, the kind of stuff that keeps any lineup from running away with a game. Boston counters with Sonny Gray, 12-1 with a 2.48 ERA, though the underlying numbers that strip out luck put his true level closer to a mid-3s ERA. We had the Red Sox in this same spot three days ago as they tied their own franchise record with a 15th straight win, and Boston has been every bit as good as advertised since the break. That form is already priced into this number, though, and with Cease on the mound, the game figures to stay tight into the middle innings regardless of who's on top. Toronto is the right side on the runline this afternoon.